Analysis: A Deep Dive Into China’s Expectations-Beating GDP Growth

China’s GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, surpassing market expectations of 4.9% and the previous quarter’s 5.2%, indicating the economic recovery was accelerating.

There was, however, the matter of a notable slowdown in the year-on-year growth figures for consumption, exports and industrial production in March as compared with the first two months of the year.

This was primarily due to contrasting base effects from 2023. The omicron outbreak that struck after China scrapped most of its pandemic restrictions at the end of 2022 took a toll on the economy in the first two months of last year. This created a low base that benefited this year’s growth figures for consumption, exports and industrial production for the January-February period. Conversely, the surge in demand that occurred after the outbreak subsided in March 2023 created a high base that hurt those same figures last month.