In Depth: As Sales Surge, Electric Trucks Could Be Here for the Long Haul

Large trucks tend to be dirty, noisy, and polluting, often unwelcome on the roads. However, in China, a significant shift is underway as fleets of electric trucks — quiet, sleek, and low-emissions — replace fossil-fueled lorries [para. 1]. In 2023, China sold around 38,200 medium-sized and heavy electric trucks, dominating the global market with a 70% share, especially after global sales increased by 35%, while Chinese sales rose by 13% [para. 2].

Local industry data reveal a tremendous surge in heavy electric truck sales in China, with 19,700 units sold between January and May 2023, marking a 142% increase from the same period the previous year [para. 3]. Heavy electric trucks constitute nearly 95% of the sales of new-energy heavy trucks [para. 4].

Heavy trucks are responsible for over 40% of greenhouse gas emissions from all vehicle types in China, posing a significant challenge due to insufficient available technologies to reduce their emissions. Electrifying these vehicles is seen as a promising solution [para. 6][para. 7]. China's commitment to decarbonizing its heavy industries is driving significant investments in electric heavy trucks [para. 8]. For instance, Youlian Supply Chain Investment plans to have new-energy models make up 70% of its fleet this year [para. 11].

The sector is poised for rapid growth, akin to the boom in new-energy passenger cars from 2020 to 2022 [para. 14]. The emergence of battery swapping technology has further accelerated the adoption of electric heavy trucks by allowing quick battery replacement, thus minimizing downtime [para. 15]. The Ministry of Transport approved a plan to create a network of swapping facilities to support at least 20,000 electric heavy-duty trucks by 2026 [para. 17]. Companies like Youlian have embraced this technology despite the higher operational costs [para. 19].

Battery-swapping services, provided by companies like Shanghai Qiyuanxin Power Technology, allow truck owners to rent batteries instead of owning them, reducing the initial cost of the trucks [para. 24]. This model significantly lowers the cost threshold for electric heavy trucks, making them more accessible to buyers [para. 25].

Hydrogen-powered heavy trucks have also gained attention, despite their current market share being less than 5%, driven by China's green hydrogen industrial plans. Shandong and Chengdu have introduced financial incentives for these vehicles [para. 27]. However, the higher cost of hydrogen trucks limits their sales, and the future success of hydrogen-fueled trucks hinges on the affordability of hydrogen fuel [para. 29]. Wang Zhao predicts that while electric trucks will dominate, hydrogen trucks will serve specific roles, especially for long-distance hauls [para. 31].

The new-energy heavy truck sector faces impending price wars, with intense competition driving down prices. The average price of electric heavy trucks dropped from around 700,000 yuan in 2021 to 500,000-600,000 yuan in 2022 [para. 34]. Both traditional truck manufacturers and new entrants from adjacent sectors are pumping resources into this emerging market, positioning themselves for a competitive landscape [para. 41][para. 42]. The push for digitalization and intelligent features might accelerate this market's growth, though these technologies are still in their nascent stages [para. 44].